Tag: 爱上海LJO

first_img RELATED ARTICLESMORE FROM AUTHOR North Korea Struggling to Move Forward By Daily NK – 2011.09.06 2:56pm AvatarDaily NKQuestions or comments about this article? Contact us at [email protected] Analysis & Opinion SHARE This year, National Defense Commission chairman Kim Jong Il has visited China, twice, and Russia for a summit with Russian President Dimitry Medvedev, too. Kim has poured his efforts into strengthening economic cooperation with the former and promoting viable economic exchanges with the latter, all of which has given us at least a glimpse of the desire for economic improvement. Some see Kim’s actions as a sign that the North Korean regime’s systemic crisis has eased somewhat. There is an argument that comes from this which states that claims of a regime crisis and the need for preliminary preparations for unification made by the Lee Myung Bak’s administration should be put on hold for a moment. The instability of the North Korean regime is connected to Kim’s health issues, and links to the rapid emergence of a successor and the Lee administration’s principled approach toward North Korea, too. Since Lee took office, inter-Korean relations have been in a crisis, with North Korea conducting frequent provocations and rejecting denuclearization, and food insecurity worsening with the suspension of inter-Korean economic cooperation. Over the past few years, North Korea has also rushed headlong toward the succession of Kim Jong Eun, the third son of Kim Jong Il; this shows that the deteriorating state of Kim’s health can cause great political instability in the North Korean system and raise the possibility of change in the regime structure.In a dictatorial regime, the rapid emergence of a successor can be interpreted as evidence of a regime crisis; similarly, once Kim’s health became problematic, the succession of Kim Jong Eun progressed in an embarrassingly urgent way. First, he was given the rank of four-star general just before the Party Delegates’ Conference held in September, 2010. And then, at the Party Delegates’ Conference, he was appointed vice-chairman of the Party Central Military Committee, a position made especially for him, and political appointments for his close allies followed.The current degraded economic situation in North Korea can be seen through the inability to realize developments in light industrial production and mineral extraction. As far as food is concerned, North Korea continues to request food aid from whomever it can.Besides this, repeated provocations against South Korea also show that North Korea is in crisis. The nuclear issue which is primarily responsible for isolating North Korea is not likely to be solved while the Six-Party Talks are suspended. Strained inter-Korean relations due to South Korea’s demands for denuclearization led to the Cheonan and Yeonpyeong Island attacks.North Korea’s provocations have backfired in various ways. North Korea intended to change the Lee administration’s policies toward North Korea by inspiring ”repulsion at the Korean Peninsula dispute.” But North Korea only managed to confirm the fact that provocations aimed at South Korea won’t help them any more. North Korea’s pursuit of internal and external policies like this has resulted in the intensified isolation of the country, and seems economically connected to the deterioration of production structures and ongoing food problems. Kim Jong Il’s regime doesn’t seem to have any good ideas about how to reverse the economic decline.North Korea constantly demanded talks with South Korea in the first half of 2011 so as to improve this negative situation. But progress hasn’t been made because the North has failed to meet the Lee administration’s demands for denuclearization and an apology for past provocations. So, finally, North Korea seems to be returning to traditional allies China and Russia. North Korea’s choice can be understood as a necessary step in resuming the Six-Party Talks in cooperation with China and Russia. Thereafter, North Korea’s wants to improve strained relations with the U.S., and to ease the international community’s pressure and sanctions. Considering North Korea’s situation in the second half of 2011, it seems not to be a position from which to resolve the difficulties they still face, however. They are changing their external policy, away from a firm stance and towards a softer tone as a way to overcome difficulties. North Korea seemingly intends to stay positive on the restarting of the Six-Party Talks and thus render the U.S. and even Japan unable to reject their attitude. Therefore, what the South Korean government should consider going forward is to recognize North Korea’s attempt to get out of the difficulties they’ve faced in the past. As the replacement of the minister in charge coincides with North Korea’s change in attitude, they need to recognize that the next step requires more flexible policies toward North Korea. Is Nuclear Peace with North Korea Possible? center_img Analysis & Opinion Tracking the “unidentified yellow substance” being dried out near the Yongbyon Nuclear Center Analysis & Opinion Facebook Twitter Analysis & Opinion Pence Cartoon: “KOR-US Karaoke”last_img read more

Read more